View Full Version : *Rolls Eyes* The Raffle Odds
Monkeybones 05-31-2006, 05:43 PM Heres how to find you odds of winning the raffle for 1 ps3 (2 ps3's would be different odds) ......
correct me if i'm wrong......
take your number of posts, and divide by 10
now add 1 to that number for every person you have refered
if it is above 36, that is the max.... (w/o including referals) if it is above 36 with referrals, then take that number.....
now divide your number, by this number: (this is ABOUT how many possible entries were there at the time of this post)
280
Now factor in ppl who arent active and the likes and you have a rough estimate......
Justinian 06-01-2006, 08:15 AM and ur point is....
Monkeybones 06-01-2006, 05:18 PM a lot of ppl in the Ps3 raffle topics wanted to know what their odds of winning were.............. so i delivered........
curlfro 06-01-2006, 05:50 PM well, if you have 36 tickets (like me and justinian) we have a 4/27 chance of winning, or 1/6.75
why dose everyone else get the luck :mad: i never win anything
curlfro 06-02-2006, 07:05 PM why dose everyone else get the luck :mad: i never win anything
well, i once said that when i lost a contest at my school. then later that day i won a free MP3 player so don't be dissapointed yet.
slingshot317 07-15-2006, 09:49 AM hahah i remember in kindergarden i din win this ring pop and so i cried like a ***** and they gave me one! haha think itll work again?
curlfro 07-15-2006, 12:32 PM hahah i remember in kindergarden i din win this ring pop and so i cried like a ***** and they gave me one! haha think itll work again?
i doubt it.
Tsura 07-15-2006, 09:41 PM ive refigured it.
divide your total posts by 10, add your referals.
take that number (max 36) divide by 310.
thats your chance of winning.
as of july 15, if you have 36 ballots you have a 1/9 chance of winning.
slingshot317 07-16-2006, 09:38 AM y do u divide by 310?...and plus not everyone might have 36-40 referrals...u know wat would REALLY piss me off...if someone randomely came a week before...made the MINIMUM amount of posts and got his or her name drawn...hahha actually id prolly laugh and end up tracking the person down...........
curlfro 07-16-2006, 10:44 AM ive refigured it.
divide your total posts by 10, add your referals.
take that number (max 36) divide by 310.
thats your chance of winning.
as of july 15, if you have 36 ballots you have a 1/9 chance of winning.
wow, there's a half decent chance of me winning! :eek:
Tsura 07-16-2006, 04:05 PM 310 is the total amout of ballots of everyone as of july 15. take your number of posts 80 right now, add the number of referals (good job on that so far), so you have about a 1/40 chance right now. first of thats really good, second even if someone had 40 referals the max number of ballots is 36.
slingshot317 07-16-2006, 07:22 PM wait wait assuming i were to have 400 posts which gets me 36 entries...if i were to refer like 4 people....i could only still cap off at 36 entries?
Tsura 07-16-2006, 08:38 PM that is my present assumption
lilninja 07-21-2006, 02:35 AM No i think for everyone person you refer you get one extra enteries.e.g if you have 360 posts and you've reffered 13 people you'd have 49 enteries.
slingshot317 07-21-2006, 12:17 PM i just asked master so hell tell me in a jiffy (handy chap dontcha think? hahah)
Tsura 07-21-2006, 02:34 PM but he also said the ballots were capped at 36. so if the max is 36 that means that you could have 300 posts and 6 referals and still get 36 ballots.
slingshot317 07-21-2006, 09:46 PM but he also said the ballots were capped at 36. so if the max is 36 that means that you could have 300 posts and 6 referals and still get 36 ballots.
in other words ur tellin me theres no point in referals? then the whole contest thing....its useless...cuz we all know as soon as its over people are just gonna stop posting...and if referals dont mean anything then theres no point in even doing em...the whole point of contest was to get a buncha gamers to come together and talk....but i know for a fact that many of em wont look at this twice once contest is over...let alone the referred people
lilninja 07-22-2006, 01:06 AM Wait wait....calm...breathe slowly sling....take deep breaths lol.
Wait so you can't get more than 36 enteries.
slingshot317 07-22-2006, 12:44 PM Wait wait....calm...breathe slowly sling....take deep breaths lol.
Wait so you can't get more than 36 enteries.
thats the thing lol i dont know...master hasnt gotten back to me on the topic...i think some heavy deliberations are in the process regarding all this lol
Monkeybones 07-31-2006, 02:11 PM well... all i can say is good luck ps3master when you do the final raffle....
so when is the ballot running?
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